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Volume 46, 1986
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volume 46, 1986

Pfluegr and Barry / Crop Insurance and Credit: A Farm Level Simulation Analysis

Jones and Barry / Impacts of Production Credit Associations on Future Loan Rates for Borrowers

Barry / Financial Stress for the Farm Credit Banks: Impacts on Future Loan Rates for Borrowers

Harris, Herr, and Njinkeu / Evaluation of Alternative Models for the Federal Intermediate Credit Bank of St. Louis

Fiske / A Comparative Analysis of the Return to Equity and Weighted Average Cost of Capital Approaches to Capital Budgeting

Saunders and Bailey / Effects of Monetary Changes on the Price Level and Output in the U.S. Agricultural Sector

Hanson and Eidman / Evidence of the Stability of Income Tax Expenditures to Farmers

Abstracts

Pfluegr and Barry / Crop Insurance and Credit: A Farm Level Simulation Analysis <top>

A combination of survey and simulation procedures measured how a sample of nonreal estate lenders in Illinois responded to a farmer's use of crop insurance and evaluated the effects of the responses on farm  financial performance. Survey results indicated a positive credit response by about 60 percent of the lenders, and little change in interest rates on loan maturities. The simulation results for a highly leveraged farm indicated that crop insurance and the credit response improve farm survival and liquidity, although additional borrowing occurs at relatively high interest costs.

Jones and Barry / Impacts of Production Credit Associations on Future Loan Rates for Borrowers <top>

Production Credit Associations (PCAs) are farmer-owned cooperatives that are intended to enhance in part the economic well-being of American farmers and ranchers by decreasing and stabilizing the cost of credit services. Measuring the financing costs of PCA borrowers is complex because borrowers are investors in and patrons of the PCA. Thus, borrowers' financing costs should be the net of returns the borrowers receive as investors. This study expresses the actual PCS borrower's costs in terms of the interest rate the equates to zero the net present value of the cash flow associated with a PCA loan.

Barry / Financial Stress for the Farm Credit Banks: Impacts on Future Loan Rates for Borrowers <top>

A loan-pricing model is used to estimate the effects of financial stress on borrowing costs from the Farm Credit Banks during an adjustment period in which the banks restore their capital structure and repay any federal assistance. The magnitude and the duration of higher borrowing costs depend on the level of loan loss, leverage targets, the adjustment period, earnings on reserves, public subsidies, and other environmental changes. For example, an adjustment period of at least ten years would keep the increment to loan rates under 1.5 percent for losses up to about $4 billion.

Harris, Herr, and Njinkeu / Evaluation of Alternative Models for the Federal Intermediate Credit Bank of St. Louis <top>

The performance of two single-equation econometric models, a univariate Box-Jenkins model, and two composite models for forecasting Sixth District Federal Intermediate Credit Bank (Bank) monthly loan volume outstanding are compared with  an averaging model now in use by the Bank. Senior Banks officers desire both accurate point forecasts and turning point identification. Results suggest that for predictive accuracy the monthly dummy variable econometric model or either composite model  are preferred to the averaging model used by the Bank. When turning point predictions are the primary objective, the averaging model performs best.

Fiske / A Comparative Analysis of the Return to Equity and Weighted Average Cost of Capital Approaches to Capital Budgeting <top>

Two widely used variations on the net present vale formula- the weighted average cost of capital approach and the return to equity approach- are reconciled for both the single period and the multiperiod case. In both cases, the differences in net present values emerging from the two approaches can be attributed to alternative assumptions about the value and incidence of the debt capacity.

Saunders and Bailey / Effects of Monetary  Changes on the Price Level and Output in the U.S. Agricultural Sector <top>

The U.S. agricultural sector is often subjected to external shocks such as changes in the money supply. A change in the money supply may have and important impact on agricultural output prices. This study empirically investigates two issues: the question of causality in the money-income relationship (as applicable to the agricultural sector) and the effects of monetary changes on the two components of nominal farm product (prices and real farm product). The study fins that the impact of monetary changes operates primarily through price level changes at both the retail and the farm level.

Hanson and Eidman / Evidence of the Stability of Income Tax Expenditures to Farmers <top>

Estimates of tax expenditures (savings on tax liabilities due to use of tax preferences, credits and deductions) were estimated for a sample of southern Minnesota farms. Tax savings remained at approximately the same real levels in 1979-82 as in the growth period of the early and mid-1970s. Tax expenditures averages $5,971 (1972 dollars) for the sample and ranges from $2,551 on small farms to $9,500 on large farms. A larger proportion of the tax savings resulted from interest-related deductions in 1979-82 relative to investment-related depreciation and investment credits. Incomes declined in real terms and effective tax rates increased in the later period. The level of unused credits and deductions nearly doubled, reflecting economic difficulties in the early 1980s.

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